The COVID shots can't replace routine testing
The COVID shots can't replace routine testing
There is no rational public health or safety argument for exempting the fully jabbed from a testing, distancing, or masking rule imposed on the unvaccinated, particularly given the Delta variant.
This post contains summaries of a number of preprint papers and statements from hospitals, universities, states, and officials since July 2021, all of which strongly suggest it is irrational for any employer or business to exempt an individual from a testing, distancing, or masking rule based on such person’s decision to take one of the synthetic COVID shots (i.e. Pfizer, Moderna, Janssen).
The papers demonstrate the shots do nothing to help reduce carriage of SARS-CoV-2, particularly the Delta variant. See UW-Madison (v1, v2, v3, v4) and UC Davis (v1, v2) papers. Dr. McCullough made this point in an October 2, 2021 speech to the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons. You can watch the whole speech here.
The papers also document several important findings, including: (1) fully jabbed individuals being infected by fully jabbed individuals (Israel July 2021, Finland May 2021); (2) fully jabbed individuals carrying contagious levels of virus, including high percentages of asymptomatic cases carrying contagious levels of virus (UW-Madison v1, v2, v3, v4); (3) infectious virus recovered from fully jabbed, but not from un-jabbed, asymptomatic individuals (UW-Madison v3, v4); (4) fully jabbed individuals spreading SARS-CoV-2 to colleagues, patients, and household contacts (i.e. at work and at home) (Finland May 2021); (5) the virus spreading rapidly in highly vaccinated populations resulting in hospitalizations and death (Cap Cod July 2021, Israel July 2021, Finland May 2021); and (6) equally high ICU and in-hospital death rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated patients that are hospitalized (CDC hospitalization study).
In view of this readily available information, there is no credible, rational public health or safety argument for exempting the fully jabbed from a testing, distancing, or masking rule imposed on the unvaccinated, particularly given the Delta variant. These papers also suggest something less obvious: business owners who mandate COVID shots over routine testing and masks—despite knowing the shots can’t stop transmission—may be increasing their exposure to negligence and premises liability claims and punitive damages when workers and invitees become infected with COVID on site. Transmission can be traced directly to fully jabbed individuals (Israel July 2021, Finland May 2021).
*The statements below are organized by the data described, not publication date.*
Jan - June 2021
CDC says shots reduce hospitalization, but not ICU admission and death thereafter.
On August 29, 2021, CDC affiliated authors posted this preprint1 comparing COVID-associated hospitalizations among vaccinated and unvaccinated adults based on data from January - June 2021. Using a sample of “4,440 unvaccinated and 292 fully vaccinated cases,” the authors concluded the emergency COVID shots “continue to play a critical role in preventing serious COVID-19 illness” and “remain highly effective in preventing COVID-19 hospitalizations.” The authors show the “unvaccinated” were up to 17 times more likely to be hospitalized than the “fully vaccinated.” They also claim that those hospitalized despite full vaccination “were more medically fragile at baseline than those who were unvaccinated.” That is, they were older and more likely to be in long-term care facilities, immunosuppressed, or have multiple underlying health conditions.
Of note, the paper does not address how the hospitalized became infected and does not claim the shots improve outcomes for the hospitalized. In fact, the authors expressly state “[w]e did not find any clear difference in the risk for ICU admission or in-hospital death between vaccinated and unvaccinated persons.” Public comments to the paper suggest many issues, including that the vast majority of the public was “unvaccinated” during the study period.
May 2021
Fully vaccinated workers spread virus in outbreak that kills 18 patients in Finland.
On June 28, 2021, Finnish health authorities finalized a report2 showing that, in May 2021, fully vaccinated health workers with symptomatic breakthrough infections spread SARS-CoV-2 at work and at home during an outbreak of the Delta variant. The outbreak caused 18 patient deaths in a hospital district in Finland. Nearly all of the vaccinated workers (˃ 90%) took Comirnaty, Pfizer’s genetic shot. Excluding students, the report, published July 29, 2021, shows (a) 18 of 37 infected health workers (49%) had been fully vaccinated; (b) 14 of the 18 became symptomatic; and (c) at least 3 (of 5 evaluated) spread the infection at work and in the community.
Of 5 fully vaccinated symptomatic workers evaluated, 3 spread infections to a colleague, patient, or household contact, while only 2 did not. Of the 3, a first infected a colleague “within 4 days from the symptom onset”; the first and a second “transmitted the infection to their household contacts and patients”; and the third “infected only a household contact nearly 2 weeks after the disease onset.” Further, a few patients who were cared for by fully vaccinated workers contracted COVID-19 even though they “stayed solely in their single or two-person room.” Technicians ruled out ventilation as the problem, as infections occurred in areas with separate air supply and exit lines, on separate floors, and in separate buildings. In closing, the report reiterated “Breakthrough infections with the Delta variant and further transmission from fully vaccinated, symptomatic HCW [healthcare workers] occurred.”
June 2021
Fully jabbed Vietnamese workers show viral loads 251 times higher than in 2020.
On August 10, 2021, a hospital in Vietnam published a report3 showing that, in June 2021, the Delta variant was spreading among fully vaccinated health workers. Of note, the report found “Viral loads of breakthrough Delta variant infection cases were 251 times higher than those of cases infected with old strains detected between March-April 2020.” Further, “[t]here was no correlation between vaccine-induced neutralizing antibody levels and viral loads or the development of symptoms.”
July 2021
July 2021: Hundreds of fully vaccinated infected in Cap Cod, Massachusetts outbreak.
On July 30, 2021, the CDC reported on a July 2021 COVID outbreak in Cape Cod where 76% of the cases (346 of 469) and 80% of those hospitalized (4 of 5) were fully vaccinated.4 Of the 346 fully vaccinated cases, 46% had Pfizer (159); 38% had Moderna (131); and 16% had Janssen (56). 69% of the eligible population in the area had been fully vaccinated, and those contracting COVID “reported attending densely packed indoor and outdoor events at venues that included bars, restaurants, guest houses, and rental homes.”
Of note, 72 (21%) of the fully vaccinated cases were asymptomatic; and over 50% of the 274 symptomatic breakthroughs were fully vaccinated less than 3 months, while all were fully vaccinated less than 6 months. The 4 people hospitalized despite full vaccination ranged ages 20-70, while the lone unvaccinated person hospitalized was in their 50s. 89% of sequenced cases involved the Delta variant. Further, there was no significant difference in the Ct values of samples collected based on vaccination status, promoting the CDC to state “This might mean that the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 is also similar.” In closing, the CDC suggested areas without substantial or high transmission “might consider expanding prevention strategies, including masking in indoor public settings regardless of vaccination status.”
July 2021: Wisconsinites shed infectious virus despite full vaccination.
From July 31 to August 24, 2021, UW-Madison published a series of reports showing Wisconsinites shedding infectious SARS-CoV-2 despite vaccination in July 2021. Per the July 31 report,5 the authors initially compared 79 fully vaccinated breakthrough samples with 212 unvaccinated samples to determine if vaccination reduces viral loads. The found it did not. In particular, in each group, they found ~83% had Ct levels of ~30 or lower—“consistent with the recovery of infectious virus”—and that 33% of breakthroughs “had extremely low Ct values <20, consistent with very high viral loads.” Per the August 11 report,6 68% of breakthroughs (212 of 311 samples) “had extremely low Ct values <25, consistent with high viral loads.” Per the August 24 report,7 the authors detected Ct values <25 in 82% of asymptomatic breakthrough cases (9 of 11) and 29% of asymptomatic unvaccinated cases (7 of 24).
Policies that create a dichotomy between vaccination and routine testing should be re-evaluated.
Of note, the authors isolated infectious virus in 95% of breakthrough cases with extremely low Ct values <25 (37 of 39) and in the sole sample tested of an asymptomatic breakthrough. While the authors isolated infectious virus in 88% of unvaccinated samples with Ct values <25 (14 of 16), they do not report isolating infectious virus from an asymptomatic unvaccinated person. The authors specifically cultured these 39+16=55 samples “to determine if high viral loads might indicate the presence of infectious SARS-CoV-2.”
In addition to reporting no difference in vaccinated/unvaccinated viral loads and identifying contagious breakthrough infections, the authors warned against exempting vaccinated individuals from routine testing, masking, and distancing. Among other things, they state:
Nonetheless, the finding of high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in vaccinated individuals has important implications for risk assessment and mitigation.
[R]isk disinhibition may lead vaccinated people to increase behaviors that expose them to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and individuals with breakthrough infections could serve as sources of onward transmission to others.
Policies that create a dichotomy between vaccination and routine testing should be re-evaluated.
Vaccinated individuals, particularly those who may have high levels of community or occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2, should be encouraged to continue frequent testing, especially when symptomatic, to limit community spread.
Continued adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as masking and distancing, will remain important for both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals because we cannot predict which vaccinated individuals will experience breakthrough infections with high viral loads.
July 2021: Vaccinated patient, workers spread virus in highly vaccinated Israeli hospital.
On August 24, health officials in Israel finalized an investigation8 of a hospital outbreak where SARS-CoV-2 spread rapidly, infecting 42 (23 patients, 16 staff, 3 family members) and killing 5 fully vaccinated patients. Of the 42 diagnosed, 3 were unvaccinated, while 38 (90%) “were fully vaccinated with two doses of the Comirnaty vaccine.” Among other things, the report found:
“The index case was a fully vaccinated haemodialysis patient in their 70s.”
“The attack rate among exposed individuals reached 23.3% in patients and 10.3% in staff, with 96.2% vaccination rate among exposed individuals.”
“All staff (median age: 33 years; range: 22–48) remained asymptomatic or with mild disease.”
“Among the patients (median age: 77 years; range: 42–93; median time from second vaccine dose to infection: 176 days; range: 143-188), eight became severely ill, six critically ill and five of the critically ill died.”
“Moreover, several transmissions probably occurred between two individuals both wearing surgical masks, and in one instance using full PPE, including N-95 mask, face shield, gown and gloves.”
“[This report] challenges the assumption that high universal vaccination rates will lead to herd immunity and prevent COVID-19 outbreaks. This was probably true for the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus, but in the outbreak described here, 96.2% of the exposed population was vaccinated.”
“Although some transmission between staff members could have occurred without masks, all transmissions between patients and staff occurred between masked and vaccinated individuals, as experienced in an outbreak from Finland.”
“[In our] case patients, the time from vaccination was considerable. The shortest interval was 142 days (5 months), and many of our case patients advanced to severe disease.”
“Data from Israel imply that the main reason for the increase in COVID-19 cases in summer is indeed waning immunity, and a third vaccine dose, 5 months after the second dose will possibly result in trend reversal.”
July 2021: Surgeon General: Fully vaccinated parents should mask around their kids.
In this video posted on July 29, 2021, Surgeon General Murthy suggests fully vaccinated parents should consider wearing masks at home as “an extra step to protecting” children and other unvaccinated persons in their homes. In full, the Surgeon General states: “For example if you happen to have a lot of interaction with folks who are unvaccinated—let’s say you’re a parent like me who has young children at home who are not vaccinated, that’s a circumstance where being extra cautious and wearing that mask even if you are fully vaccinated—wearing it outside and when you’re at indoor public locations is an extra step to protecting those at home.”
August 2021
Aug 2021: CDC Director: The vaccines can’t stop transmission.
In the first week of August 2021, CDC Director Walensky told Wolf Blitzer the CDC changed its masking guidelines on July 27, 2021 because, what the COVID shots “can’t do anymore is prevent transmission.” The Director also echoed Surgeon General Murthy’s comments, urging the fully vaccinated to “wear a mask in public indoor settings,” particularly if they are “going home to somebody who has not been vaccinated to somebody who can't get vaccinated, somebody who is immunosuppressed or a little frail, somebody with comorbidities.”
Aug. 2021: Dallas expert suggests fully vaccinated mask in public spaces.
In the 37th minute of the August 12, 2021 meeting of the Dallas City Council’s Ad Hoc Committee on COVID-19 Recovery, local expert Timothy Bray Ph.D. explains Dallas County residents are carrying contagious, asymptomatic breakthrough infections without knowing it and should be asked to wear masks to avoid contaminating public spaces.
“[W]hen folks say that a cloth mask wont stop the aerosol virus, that’s true, but it will stop the droplets—so when you’re getting on the elevator and you cough or you speak loudly, you’re not depositing virus, if you’re sick, on the elevator buttons, you’re not depositing it on the escalator handrails—these are the types of things that will keep the virus in check; especially because we now know with the Delta variant—people who already have been vaccinated can be sick and they won’t necessarily know it—they’ll be what we would call asymptomatic—and there are dozens literally of cases of asymptomatic folks who are testing positive and can spread the virus. So, you know, from a simple public safety standpoint, we need to let people know we’re not asking them to wear the mask because it will eliminate the virus, we’re asking them to wear their mask because it will eliminate the droplets being on contaminated surfaces that thousands of people a day pass through.” [Dr. Bray, 8/12/2021]
So what’s the end game?
To recap, among other things, these articles show:
The point of these observations is not to blame fully jabbed individuals for the increased spread of SARS-CoV-2; instead, my primary point is to make clear one cannot credibly blame a particular group for increased spread of COVID19 in 2021 as compared to 2020. That unvaccinated people continue to suffer does not mean they are causing the problem.
My secondary point is to emphasize—the data shows it is irrational to exempt the “vaccinated” from testing, masking, and distancing rules applied to the “unvaccinated.” Business owners can continue to play “I-follow-CDC-headlines-but-I-don’t-read-for-substance.” They can continue pretending that mandating synthetic COVID shots over routine testing and masking is a rational way to protect invitees from SARS-Cov-2. But if they do so, I suspect they’ll be in for a rude awakening when claims for negligence, premises liability, and punitive damages are brought by those injured by such irrational policies. What’s more, such mandates trample civil rights protected under state law. Yet, in their haste, most business leaders failed to investigate either issue before imposing mandates. May history judge such feckless leaders for what they are.
Havers FP, Pham H, Taylor CA, et al. 2021 Aug 29. COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among vaccinated and unvaccinated adults ≥18 years – COVID-NET, 13 states, January 1 – July 24, 2021. COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv. [accessed 2021 Oct 12]. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.27.21262356.
Hetemäki I, Kääriäinen S, Alho P, et al. 2021 Jul 29. An outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant (B.1.617.2) in a secondary care hospital in Finland, May 2021. Euro Surveill. 2021 [accessed 2021 Sep 17]26(30):pii=2100636. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.30.2100636.
Chau NVV, Ngoc NM, Nguyet LA, et al. 2021 Aug 10. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant among vaccinated healthcare workers, Vietnam. [accessed 2021 Sep 26]. https://autopapers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3897733.
Brown CM, Vostok J, Johnson H, et al. 2021 Jul 30. Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Including COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections, Associated with Large Public Gatherings — Barnstable County, Massachusetts, July 2021. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021. [accessed 2021 Sep 17];70(31):1059-1062. http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7031e2.
Riemersma KK, Grogan BE, Kita-Yarbro A, et al. 2021 Jul 31. Vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals have similar viral loads in communities with a high prevalence of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant. COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv. [accessed 2021 Sep 17]. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v1.
Riemersma KK, Grogan BE, Kita-Yarbro A, et al. 2021 Aug 11. Shedding of Infectious SARS-CoV-2 Despite Vaccination when the Delta Variant is Prevalent - Wisconsin, July 2021. COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv. [accessed 2021 Sep 17]. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v3.
Riemersma KK, Grogan BE, Kita-Yarbro A, et al. 2021 Aug 24. Shedding of Infectious SARS-CoV-2 Despite Vaccination. COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv. [accessed 2021 Sep 17]. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v4.
Shitrit P, Zuckerman NS, Gottesman B, Chowers M. 2021 Sep 30. Nosocomial outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in a highly vaccinated population, Israel, July 2021. Euro Surveill. 2021 [accessed 2021 Oct 17]26(39):pii=2100822. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.39.2100822.